Collective Conscious

In my last post, I argued that vic­tory for Democ­rats on the Bush tax cuts  might be eas­i­est with­out a vote at all, and I have also argued that what is most impor­tant about the next two years is what does not hap­pen.

Most Repub­li­can pol­icy vic­to­ries over the past two years have been achieved by pre­vent­ing the Sen­ate from hold­ing votes. Think­ing about this, I fear we are enter­ing a period of polit­i­cal impo­tence. I fear that this impo­tence is let­ting the exec­u­tive branch broadly over­step its bound­aries with­out fear of over­sight; I fear that this impo­tence has arrived at just the time when Amer­i­can democ­racy must be boldest.

Ygle­sias today remarked on a par­tic­u­lar odd­ity of the Amer­i­can sys­tem: its longevity. Despite our dif­fuse and con­fronta­tional sys­tem, there has never been a mil­i­tary inter­ven­tion or fail­ure of gov­ern­ment that has brought it down. But he sug­gests that the char­ac­ter­is­tics which allowed this peace have dis­ap­peared; that now we prac­tice the same bit­terly par­ti­san pol­i­tics that has spelt the doom of all other pres­i­den­tial systems.

Our enemy now is the sta­tus quo. I fully expect that our pol­i­tics will fail to address the press­ing prob­lems of the post-​​crisis world, and that we will watch as new bod­ies rise to emi­nence. Most cer­tainly, we will see influ­ence emerge in Asia; but per­haps we will also wit­ness the rise of the Euro­pean Union as a polit­i­cal force in its own right. The US, how­ever, appears to be set to lan­guish in inter­nal con­flict for the fore­see­able future: a pol­i­tics of failure.

In Britain they cam­paign on the fail­ures of the rul­ing party, and once in power they set out to make things right. Here in Amer­ica they cam­paign on the fail­ures of the rul­ing party, but once in power the only object is sab­o­tage. How can we expect progress from a coun­try which is insti­tu­tion­ally uncer­tain? Who gov­erns Amer­ica? Who owns its suc­cesses and fail­ures? In other nations the answer to these ques­tions are clear, but the Amer­i­can sys­tem has always dis­con­nected par­ties from their poli­cies. Hence it is no sur­prise to see Repub­li­cans claim­ing credit for the suc­cesses of the stim­u­lus or health care reform, even as they push to repeal the legislation.

But how do we suc­ceed with a pol­i­tics of fail­ure? How do we move forward?

I think we will first have to move back. I expect that the Amer­i­can cri­sis is not over; instead I expect that it is only just begin­ning, and this new era of divided gov­ern­ment will expose and exploit every crack in the sys­tem. It is the polit­i­cal ver­sion of the old econ­o­mists’ curse: we live in inter­est­ing times.

Update: I think Paul Krug­man agrees.