Should Democrats Lose the House?
While I don't by any stretch think that losing control of the House of Representatives is a political certainty for Democrats, I also don't think that such a loss would necessarily be a bad thing. It would be a symbolic defeat for Democrats, but in an economy like this one, just barely losing the House while holding 55-ish seats in the Senate is a pretty good baseline scenario. So what would happen?
My first reaction is that it would make the Senate a very different place. Rather than facing bills sent over by Pelosi and her cadre of secret communists, the Senate would be considering real red-blooded American bills drafted and passed by a Republican-majority chamber It's a lot harder to make a case for a filibuster when you're voting on your own party's bill, and a distinct possibility is that legislative obstruction won't be as much of an issue.
The main question, then, is how new bills will be passed. Given present political attitudes, it's very difficult for me to imagine a GOP House writing bills that would be acceptable to more than 50 Democratic senators; you're still going to look for one party that can command a majority in both chambers.
One possibility is 45 Republicans trying to woo 5 or so Democrats over to vote for bills passed by a strict GOP majority, assuming that the other Democrats won't go and filibuster that themselves. Let's think about that situation. Here's Nate Silver's chart of likely Democratic losses:
So we're already looking at losing some of the most conservative Democrats out there. Who's left? Namely, Nelson, Lieberman and Landrieu (and Crist, assuming he gets the spot). That doesn't seem quite enough to me, so the danger is a Senate in which the majority isn't strong enough to overcome a filibuster on its bills but the minority can't find enough defectors to pass a bill, either - and certainly can't overcome a filibuster.
On the flipside, for the Democratic Senate majority to pass a bill, they would have to find 5 or so Republicans, starting with Crist (if he wins), Snowe, Collins, and Brown, and then write a bill that would pass the House with support from just a few marginal GOP congressmen (Cao if he's still around, otherwise probably some newly-minted moderates) and the whole Democratic caucus. However, the absolute majority power of the House means that any defectors would have to vote with Democrats a huge proportion of the time in order to win the constant procedural battles of the House - and at that point, they might as well be Democrats.
It's going to be a tight spot, win or lose. But if Democrats lose the house, the key change is this: the end of the supposed "Obama-Pelosi-Reid Axis". That means a clear desire for action in the GOP House caucus, which McConnell's people will have to deal with like adults.
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